#18: Our Flawed Forecasts

Adding an extra dose of behavioral science to your week with our series In a Nutshell— a collection of behavioral science principles, explained in 150 words or less, written weekly by CUBIC director Allison Zelkowitz.

Are you planning a holiday this year? Perhaps you’re picturing the sheer joy you’ll feel when you can finally relax.

 Now, think back to your last holiday. Was it as amazing as you imagined, or somewhat marred by unexpected issues?

According to Affective Forecasting research, it turns out that people are generally bad at predicting how we’ll feel in the future. We overestimate both the intensity, as well as the duration, of positive and negative emotions. This occurs because we focus on a small part of the imagined picture, e.g. tropical paradise, and neglect to consider travel delays or bad weather. Conversely, if we envision the loss of a loved one, we focus primarily on the heartbreak, and overlook our coping skills and support networks.

There is good news, though: as we grow older, we become better at predicting our emotional states. So that’s something to (really) look forward to!