#83 How to Decide
Are you facing any big decisions at the moment?
If so, DON’T use a pros and cons list!
Dr. Annie Duke, decision science expert, world champion poker player, and author of the book How to Decide, has bad news about pros and cons lists: they don’t help us compare choices, and they’re prone to bias. They help 𝘫𝘶𝘴𝘵𝘪𝘧𝘺 the choice we already want, rather than 𝘪𝘥𝘦𝘯𝘵𝘪𝘧𝘺 the objectively better choice.
Instead, Duke recommends important steps for better decision-making:
Identify the reasonable set of possible outcomes for one option.
Identify your preference for each outcome – to what degree do you like or dislike each outcome, given your values?
Estimate the relative likelihood of each outcome unfolding.
Repeat steps 1-3 for other options under consideration.
Compare the options to one another.
This method may take a little practice, but for major decisions, the investment should pay off.